Resultados da Simulacao de RTP/GGR
Data do Teste: 11/02/2026 Script:
scripts/rtp-simulation.tsSimulacoes por caixa: 10.000 Simulacoes de upgrade: 10.000 por faixa Simulacoes de batalha: 200-500 por combinacao (11 cenarios x 2 round counts x 2 caixas) Range Provably Fair: 1 a 10.000.000 Moeda: BRL (valueCentsBrl) calculateRoll: HMAC-SHA256, substring(0,13), retry overflow, 1-based
Resumo Executivo
| Metrica | Valor |
|---|---|
| Total Apostado (Caixas) | R$ 6.494.800,00 |
| Total Ganho (Players) | R$ 4.593.508,90 |
| Lucro da Casa (Caixas) | R$ 1.901.291,10 |
| RTP Geral (Caixas) | 70.73% |
| House Edge (Caixas) | 29.27% |
| RTP Medio (Upgrades) | 70.36% |
| House Edge (Upgrades) | 29.64% |
| House Edge (Batalhas PvP) | 26.63% |
| House Edge (Batalhas vs Bots) | 26.85% |
| House Edge (Batalhas SHARED) | 27.49% |
1. RTP por Caixa
RTP (Return to Player) - Quanto % volta para os jogadores
100% = Break Even | <100% = Casa lucra | >100% = Casa perde
[OK ] Emerald | ###################################### 75.5%
[OK ] Star | #################################### 72.9%
[OK ] Paradise | ################################### 69.8%
[OK ] Case Hardned | ################################## 68.1%
[OK ] Royal | ################################## 67.7%
[OK ] Crown | ################################## 67.2%
[OK ] Ultra | ################################# 65.2%
[OK ] Snow | ############################ 56.1%Tabela Detalhada
| Caixa | Preco (BRL) | RTP Simulado | RTP Teorico | House Edge | Lucro/10.000 aberturas | FLIPs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerald | R$ 249,90 | 75.50% | 77.60% | 24.50% | +R$ 612.196,09 | 2.488 |
| Star | R$ 19,90 | 72.90% | 70.07% | 27.10% | +R$ 53.938,75 | 128 |
| Paradise | R$ 69,99 | 69.85% | 68.45% | 30.15% | +R$ 211.046,73 | 656 |
| Case Hardned | R$ 199,00 | 68.10% | 67.54% | 31.90% | +R$ 634.765,74 | 1.084 |
| Royal | R$ 19,90 | 67.72% | 66.61% | 32.28% | +R$ 64.241,55 | 24 |
| Crown | R$ 24,90 | 67.22% | 68.69% | 32.78% | +R$ 81.633,41 | 46 |
| Ultra | R$ 49,99 | 65.25% | 69.29% | 34.75% | +R$ 173.719,55 | 289 |
| Snow | R$ 15,90 | 56.13% | 63.31% | 43.87% | +R$ 69.749,28 | 142 |
Caixa Snow
RTP de 56.13% - House edge de 43.87% pode ser agressivo demais e afugentar jogadores.
2. Distribuicao de Raridade (Global - 80.000 aberturas)
| Raridade | Drops | Porcentagem |
|---|---|---|
| CONSUMER | 130 | 0.16% |
| INDUSTRIAL | 3.369 | 4.21% |
| MIL_SPEC | 16.256 | 20.32% |
| RESTRICTED | 44.931 | 56.16% |
| CLASSIFIED | 11.345 | 14.18% |
| COVERT | 3.969 | 4.96% |
3. Impacto do Sistema FLIP
| Caixa | Flip Threshold | FLIPs | % Real | % Teorica | Itens Raros |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerald | 7.489.551 | 2.488 | 24.9% | 25.10% | 11 |
| Case Hardned | 8.936.100 | 1.084 | 10.8% | 10.64% | 6 |
| Paradise | 9.376.611 | 656 | 6.6% | 6.23% | 15 |
| Ultra | 9.708.501 | 289 | 2.9% | 2.92% | 10 |
| Snow | 9.845.099 | 142 | 1.4% | 1.55% | 8 |
| Star | 9.874.014 | 128 | 1.3% | 1.26% | 6 |
| Crown | 9.944.831 | 46 | 0.5% | 0.55% | 9 |
| Royal | 9.972.431 | 24 | 0.2% | 0.28% | 10 |
Validacao
Os resultados reais estao muito proximos das chances teoricas, validando que o sistema Provably Fair e o FLIP estao funcionando corretamente.
4. Simulacao de Upgrades
Constantes: House Edge = 8%, Min Chance = 0.5%, Max Chance = 75% Penalty: ratio^0.2 * 0.28
| Ratio (Investido/Alvo) | Chance Real | Win Rate Simulado | RTP Simulado | RTP Teorico | House Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | 7.57% | 7.18% | 71.81% | 75.70% | 28.19% |
| 25% | 18.12% | 17.99% | 71.96% | 72.48% | 28.04% |
| 40% | 28.22% | 28.36% | 70.90% | 70.55% | 29.10% |
| 50% | 34.79% | 34.95% | 69.90% | 69.58% | 30.10% |
| 60% | 41.24% | 41.92% | 69.87% | 68.73% | 30.13% |
| 75% | 50.76% | 50.78% | 67.71% | 67.68% | 32.29% |
RTP Medio de Upgrades: 70.36%House Edge Medio: 29.64%
5. Simulacao de Batalhas
Economia de Bots
Bots NAO pagam entry fee e NAO recebem itens quando ganham. Quando o time do bot vence, a casa lucra 100% do entry fee pago pelo(s) player(s) real(is). Esta simulacao modela isso fielmente.
5.1 Batalhas PvP (sem bots)
Todos os players pagam entry fee e recebem itens normalmente via settlement.
| Cenario | Rounds | Caixa | Entry Fee Total | House Edge | RTP Players |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1v1 PvP NORMAL | 1 | Paradise | R$ 139,98 | 21.6% | 78.4% |
| 1v1 PvP NORMAL | 3 | Paradise | R$ 419,94 | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| 1v1 PvP FLIP | 1 | Paradise | R$ 139,98 | 25.5% | 74.5% |
| 1v1 PvP FLIP | 3 | Paradise | R$ 419,94 | 32.0% | 68.0% |
| 3v3 PvP NORMAL | 1 | Paradise | R$ 419,94 | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| 3v3 PvP NORMAL | 3 | Paradise | R$ 1.259,82 | 36.7% | 63.3% |
| 3v3 PvP FLIP | 1 | Paradise | R$ 419,94 | 28.0% | 72.0% |
| 3v3 PvP FLIP | 3 | Paradise | R$ 1.259,82 | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| 1v1 PvP NORMAL | 1 | Emerald | R$ 499,80 | 23.2% | 76.8% |
| 1v1 PvP NORMAL | 3 | Emerald | R$ 1.499,40 | 23.3% | 76.7% |
| 1v1 PvP FLIP | 1 | Emerald | R$ 499,80 | 22.5% | 77.5% |
| 1v1 PvP FLIP | 3 | Emerald | R$ 1.499,40 | 23.3% | 76.7% |
| 3v3 PvP NORMAL | 1 | Emerald | R$ 1.499,40 | 22.3% | 77.7% |
| 3v3 PvP NORMAL | 3 | Emerald | R$ 4.498,20 | 19.7% | 80.3% |
| 3v3 PvP FLIP | 1 | Emerald | R$ 1.499,40 | 20.9% | 79.1% |
| 3v3 PvP FLIP | 3 | Emerald | R$ 4.498,20 | 24.5% | 75.5% |
House Edge Medio PvP: 26.63%
Observacao
O house edge em batalhas PvP vem dos itens terem RTP < 100% (os drops valem menos que o entry fee). FLIP vs NORMAL nao tem diferenca significativa - apenas inverte quem ganha.
5.2 Batalhas vs Bots
Apenas o player real paga entry fee. Quando bot ganha (~50%), casa lucra 100%.
| Cenario | Rounds | Caixa | Entry Fee Real | Bot Win Rate | GGR/Batalha | House Edge | RTP Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1v1 vs Bot NORMAL | 1 | Paradise | R$ 69,99 | 53.0% | R$ 26,35 | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| 1v1 vs Bot NORMAL | 3 | Paradise | R$ 209,97 | 50.6% | R$ 84,88 | 40.4% | 59.6% |
| 1v1 vs Bot FLIP | 1 | Paradise | R$ 69,99 | 49.8% | R$ 19,41 | 27.7% | 72.3% |
| 1v1 vs Bot FLIP | 3 | Paradise | R$ 209,97 | 50.6% | R$ 59,94 | 28.6% | 71.4% |
| 3v3 vs Bots NORMAL | 1 | Paradise | R$ 69,99 | 49.2% | R$ 24,41 | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| 3v3 vs Bots NORMAL | 3 | Paradise | R$ 209,97 | 56.0% | R$ 90,14 | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| 3v3 vs Bots FLIP | 1 | Paradise | R$ 69,99 | 49.8% | R$ 24,41 | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| 3v3 vs Bots FLIP | 3 | Paradise | R$ 209,97 | 47.0% | R$ 54,98 | 26.2% | 73.8% |
| 1v1 vs Bot NORMAL | 1 | Emerald | R$ 249,90 | 52.8% | R$ 78,42 | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| 1v1 vs Bot NORMAL | 3 | Emerald | R$ 749,70 | 49.4% | R$ 118,21 | 15.8% | 84.2% |
| 1v1 vs Bot FLIP | 1 | Emerald | R$ 249,90 | 48.4% | R$ 37,20 | 14.9% | 85.1% |
| 1v1 vs Bot FLIP | 3 | Emerald | R$ 749,70 | 48.4% | R$ 123,01 | 16.4% | 83.6% |
| 3v3 vs Bots NORMAL | 1 | Emerald | R$ 249,90 | 48.6% | R$ 51,45 | 20.6% | 79.4% |
| 3v3 vs Bots NORMAL | 3 | Emerald | R$ 749,70 | 58.0% | R$ 272,85 | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| 3v3 vs Bots FLIP | 1 | Emerald | R$ 249,90 | 45.4% | R$ 39,98 | 16.0% | 84.0% |
| 3v3 vs Bots FLIP | 3 | Emerald | R$ 749,70 | 49.5% | R$ 36,71 | 4.9% | 95.1% |
House Edge Medio vs Bots: 26.85% | Bot Win Rate Medio: 50.4%
Economia de Bots
- Bot win rate de ~50% e esperado (rolls aleatorios)
- Quando bot ganha: casa lucra 100% do entry fee real (R$ 69,99 a R$ 749,70)
- Quando bot perde: player real recebe itens via settlement normalmente
- O house edge real depende da combinacao: RTP dos itens + bot win rate
5.3 Batalhas SHARED (Compartilhado)
No modo SHARED, todos os players "vencem" e recebem itens via settlement.
| Cenario | Rounds | Caixa | Bots | Entry Fee Real | GGR/Batalha | House Edge | RTP Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHARED 2v2 PvP | 1 | Paradise | 0 | R$ 279,96 | R$ 86,15 | 30.8% | 69.2% |
| SHARED 2v2 PvP | 3 | Paradise | 0 | R$ 839,88 | R$ 293,73 | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| SHARED 3v3 PvP | 1 | Paradise | 0 | R$ 419,94 | R$ 127,62 | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| SHARED 3v3 PvP | 3 | Paradise | 0 | R$ 1.259,82 | R$ 405,44 | 32.2% | 67.8% |
| SHARED 3v3 vs Bots | 1 | Paradise | 5 | R$ 69,99 | R$ 19,65 | 28.1% | 71.9% |
| SHARED 3v3 vs Bots | 3 | Paradise | 5 | R$ 209,97 | R$ 67,92 | 32.4% | 67.7% |
| SHARED 2v2 PvP | 1 | Emerald | 0 | R$ 999,60 | R$ 255,56 | 25.6% | 74.4% |
| SHARED 2v2 PvP | 3 | Emerald | 0 | R$ 2.998,80 | R$ 654,54 | 21.8% | 78.2% |
| SHARED 3v3 PvP | 1 | Emerald | 0 | R$ 1.499,40 | R$ 373,94 | 24.9% | 75.1% |
| SHARED 3v3 PvP | 3 | Emerald | 0 | R$ 4.498,20 | R$ 906,14 | 20.1% | 79.9% |
| SHARED 3v3 vs Bots | 1 | Emerald | 5 | R$ 249,90 | R$ 55,55 | 22.2% | 77.8% |
| SHARED 3v3 vs Bots | 3 | Emerald | 5 | R$ 749,70 | R$ 198,06 | 26.4% | 73.6% |
House Edge Medio SHARED: 27.49%
SHARED com Bots
No modo SHARED, bots "ganham" mas NAO recebem itens. A casa paga apenas o fair share do(s) player(s) real(is), economizando nos itens que iriam para bots.
5.4 Resumo Economico de Batalhas
| Categoria | Cenarios | House Edge Medio | GGR Medio/Batalha |
|---|---|---|---|
| PvP (sem bots) | 16 | 26.63% | R$ 317,30 |
| vs Bots | 16 | 26.85% | R$ 71,40 |
| SHARED | 12 | 27.49% | R$ 287,03 |
| TOTAL | 44 | 26.94% | - |
Conclusao das Batalhas
O house edge em batalhas vem de duas fontes:
- RTP dos itens: Itens dropados valem ~70% do entry fee (mesmo RTP das caixas)
- Economia de bots: Quando bot ganha, casa lucra 100% do entry fee real
FLIP vs NORMAL nao muda o house edge significativamente. Multi-round tem variance maior mas EV similar.
6. Recomendacoes
Caixas com RTP < 60% (muito agressivo)
- Snow (RTP 56.13%): Considerar melhorar drops. House edge de 43.87% pode afugentar jogadores.
Caixas saudaveis (RTP 65-85%)
| Caixa | RTP | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald | 75.50% | Saudavel |
| Star | 72.90% | Saudavel |
| Paradise | 69.85% | Saudavel |
| Case Hardned | 68.10% | Saudavel |
| Royal | 67.72% | Saudavel |
| Crown | 67.22% | Saudavel |
| Ultra | 65.25% | Saudavel |
Upgrades
- House edge efetivo de ~30% (acima do minimo de 8% devido ao penalty factor)
- Win rates simulados batem com as chances teoricas
- Penalty factor progressivo funciona corretamente
Batalhas
- House edge de ~27% em todos os modos (PvP, vs Bots, SHARED)
- Bot win rate de ~50% confirma fairness (rolls aleatorios)
- Bots sao lucrativos: quando ganham, 100% do entry fee real e lucro da casa
7. Metodologia Tecnica
| Aspecto | Detalhe |
|---|---|
| calculateRoll | crypto.createHmac('sha256', serverSeed).update(clientSeed:nonce).digest('hex') |
| Hash prefix | substring(0, 13) = 52 bits |
| Overflow | Retry com sufixo :retry na mensagem se decimal >= maxSafeValue |
| Range | 1-based: (decimal % max) + 1 = range 1 a 10.000.000 |
| Moeda | valueCentsBrl (BRL centavos), nao valueCents (USD) |
| FLIP | Flag cosmetico - item selecionado pelo roll principal |
| Upgrade | baseChance * (1 - penaltyFactor), penalty = ratio^0.2 * 0.28 |
| Settlement | Fair share, REMOVED_TO_POOL, ADDED_FROM_POOL (busca binaria) |
| Bot economics | Bots nao pagam entry fee, nao recebem itens |
| Cenarios de batalha | 11 cenarios x 2 round counts x 2 caixas = 44 combinacoes |
Relatorio gerado pelo script scripts/rtp-simulation.tsUltima atualizacao: 11/02/2026